Excess mortality in COVID-19-negative people with non-communicable disorders during the first pandemic wave

BMC Public Health

Table 2 Multivariable logistic regressions describing the overall and chronic disorder-specific odds of dying during the pandemic year (2020) relative to a pre-pandemic year (2018)

		95% Confidence Interval
Multivariable model^a	AOR: Predictor in row	Lower	Upper
Pandemic year (2020) vs. Pre-pandemic year (2018)	3.22	3.06	3.38
Female vs. Male	0.66	0.63	0.69
Age 41–60 years vs. < 41 years	3.05	2.66	3.50
Age 61–70 years vs. < 41 years	8.61	7.51	9.88
Age 71–80 years vs. < 41 years	19.30	16.86	22.08
Age 81 + years vs. < 41 years	51.39	45.02	58.67
Multivariable models stratified by specific pre-existing chronic disorder^b	AOR: Pandemic year	Lower	Upper
No Previous NCD Morbidity	6.96	5.15	9.41
Immune System-Related	3.11	2.62	3.68
Cardiovascular	3.04	2.87	3.22
Endocrine & Metabolic	2.88	2.69	3.07
Cancer	2.84	2.61	3.09
3 or More Morbidities	2.60	2.45	3.76
Mental Disorders	2.50	2.34	2.67
Chronic Respiratory Diseases	2.48	2.30	2.68
Chronic Kidney Diseases	2.28	2.08	2.50
Chronic Liver Diseases	2.13	1.78	2.55
Substance Use Disorders	1.99	1.75	2.27

^aAdjusted for sex, age, various pre-existing chronic disorders, hospitalization, and intensive care unit admission
^bAdjusted for sex, age, hospitalization, intensive care unit admission, and pre-existing chronic comorbid disorders other than the condition used for stratification (only the AOR for pandemic year as a predictor is presented); the stratified model for no previous NCD morbidity was adjusted for sex and age only
Note. In these regressions, the coefficient on “pandemic year” gives the difference in log-odds for death in the 2020 versus 2018 cohort, holding constant the control variables. If these coefficients exceed one, then the people who tested negative for COVID-19 died with a higher probability in 2020 than similar people in 2018. AOR = adjusted odds ratio. NCD = non-communicable disorder

ISSN: 1471-2458